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Ann: Australian Market Update, page-79

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humble69

2,260 Posts.

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30/05/17

16:47

Post #: 24997065
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Originally posted by BertySmythe ↑

In the half year to 31 Dec 2016 Yowie had sales of $9,6m, cost of sales $4.3m (46%) and fixed costs $9.5m and a loss (excluding fx adj's) of $4.2m.

If we just doubled the half (just for this simple calc to get an annual total) then full year sales are $19,2m, fixed costs $19.0 and loss of $8.4m.

Therefore at a 46% margin (yes yes, it may improve) we need an additional $18.2m of sales to generate $8.4m margin just to break even. That's almost double the sales just to stop making a loss! Or total sales need to be $37.4m ($19.0 + $18.2).

So sales do need to grow really significantly and then much more so to generate a profit and underpin company valuation. Admin costs do appear high but IMO realistically they are usually not able to be cut to any great extent.

So it seems sales need to double, but really triple to make this ship properly sail. This may be possible - but I don't have a means or knowledge to rationally evaluate that.

Please feel free to correct/comment on any of my back of the envelope assumptions and calcs.

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Think you're not too far off. Company is forcasting break even at the NPAT level next year on 70% sales growth.

YOW Price at posting: 38.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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