This looks like a a pretty asymmetric bet at current prices....

This looks like a a pretty asymmetric bet at current prices. (Remember Probability doesn’t equal outcome)

The tailwinds here are extraordinary. The network effect as regulators and councils cotton on as well as big business using this to help defend themselves, will be big and I expect growth to actually accelerate. 

I expect cash balance of between 11-12mil at Dec 31, and maybe 9-10 at the full year. 

So a prospective ev of about 14 mil and with expected arr of 6mil (not to mention non recurring revenue from hardware), we are at a forward psr of just over 2 growing at >100%pa. 

the total addressable market is enormous.  

Other things to like include all options out of the money (apart from a few the ceo has) Decent founder holding. New director buying about $500k this year. 

This reminds me of a very early aconex, and has similarities to bid. Bid current trades at a fully diluted psr of 40- 50x. 

i think the share price has been hurt by the history an by the recent large raising but I expect this to be funded to cash flow positive, unless growth becomes extreme, but even then with a focus on channel partners, this could still be managed.