ADV 0.00% 13.0¢ ardiden ltd

Very good and honest assessment of the most recent webcast...

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  1. 2,983 Posts.
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    Very good and honest assessment of the most recent webcast matty. It smacks of desperation, I agree 100%. Everything to Brad is "..... huge for us .....". Tier jurisdiction, infrastructure, location on a hill, railway, proximity to N America although he does ackowledge that China is where the action is. Yet ADV continues to languish due to zero progress. Many superlatives, much hyperbole, but zero substance imo.

    For months Brad has been banging on about 40 pegmatite outcrops. How many of those outcrops ever saw a drill? None. Now, with brand new satellite imagery (someone please tell BB about Google Earth or teach the geos how to walk), 100 new outcrops have been 'found'. Any bets on how many of these will get drilled?

    They haven't a clue where to drill next so they'll poke around until it's time to switch to Pickle. I'll virtually guarantee a new tenement option/aquisition in the next 6 months when Seymour and then Pickle show nothing of substance. I've changed my mind on the new geo team 'issue'. Previously I thought this would be a positive outcome. Now, having listened to the webcast I'm of the view that this new geo team is being offered as an excuse for the previous mob finding nothing of substance due only to their ultra-conservative approach. I always look for the simplest explanation, i.e. they found nothing because there was nothing to find. A conservative geologist? Surely you're joking Mr. Boyle?

    Why are the met results from Yantai not being released; fully six months after the samples were delivered to Yantai? Why did nobody ask this question of Brad? Surely, if the results were any good, Brad would publish them to support the share price. Either they are rubbish, which I doubt, or the Yantai/ADV agreement specifically prohibits them from doing so until ADV exercises the option to proceed, which Brad has conceded is entirely resource tonnage dependent. 10 Mt is the 'ideal' target according to Brad and ADV is a very long way from a resource of that size. For the record, I still reckon 10 Mt is half of where they need to be to be taken seriously.

    One final comment on the webcast. The discussion on boutique (sand) pits feeding a central processing facility has morphed from ore being supplied by Seymour pits to ore being supplied by 'other' operators. Both the original and revised strategy of boutique pits is a nonsense and is another example of flawed (wishful?) thinking. It will never happen because it will never be economic at the sand pit scale that Seymour currently exhibits.

    I'm sorry to say, but 2018 is going to be a long, hard slog for LT ADV shareholders.

    All the above is my considered opinion and certainly should not be used for an investment decision.
 
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