This appears pretty good and I think that there has already been...

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  1. JID
    3,568 Posts.
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    This appears pretty good and I think that there has already been some significant improvements since NST has taken the helm. I have looked at some previous quarterly reports and have noted the following:

    (1) Rubicon grade is improving. In Q4 2013 the grade mined was 9.3 g/t. In Q1 2014 this had improved +40% to 13 g/t. In April this has improved again by +3.5% to 13.45 g/t

    (2) Whilst there has been no mining since February at Raleigh due to the earthquake (and production is due to recommence in June) resources have been shifted to Rubicon to increase the mining rate there. In Q4 2013 TBR's 36.75% share was 24kt of ore was mined from Rubicon/ Hornet. In Q1 2014 this was static at 24kt. In April 14kt has been mined (TBR's share). Extrapolated for the Q this comes to 42kt (again TBR's share).

    (3) Despite the non-production at Raleigh, 42kt attributable mined production for TBR for Q2 (April-June) is more than the attributable production of 36kt in Q4 2013 (when Raleigh last had a full Q of production). Can we imply that NST is getting some productivity gains?

    (4) Ore stockpiles at Rubicon mine site ROM and the Kanowna Mill ROM are progressively increasing:

    31/12/13 combined Raleigh, Rubicon, Kanowna Bell = 20kt*
    31/3/14 combined Raleigh (nil), Rubicon, Kanowna Bell = 28.1kt*
    31/4/14 combined Raleigh (nil), Rubicon, Kanowna Bell = 40.4kt*

    [TBR's direct share is 36.75%]

    Thus mining rate is exceeding mill throughput rate currently and looking at just the oz produced/ sold is not showing the full picture.

    Given that TBR's attributable oz for April (ignore their RND share) is 5,024 and Raleigh isn't even producing then things are looking very good for the remainder of 2014.

    (any corrections welcome)

    Cheers
    John
 
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