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04/06/15

12:54

Post #: 15411762
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Originally posted by ambitious.1 ↑

All fair points.

ERST is the cash cow, it won't be growing any time soon imo, ex a bolt on acquisition. Deserves a low multiple.

They overpaid for Urgent and it has only come good in the last couple of years. They recently had a customer funded redevelopment of their product. There are some growth opportunities for Urgent in the years ahead (similar to the prospects for Urbanise - UBN - a good comparable) but I don't think they will be significant in FY16, more so perhaps in FY17.

Statseeker I believe will show some good sales growth in FY16, but most of the earnings will likely be funnelled back into the business. So outside of an acquisition I don't think NPAT in FY16 will be much higher than FY15 (I think they'll do $2.2-$2.4m NPAT in FY15). They need the sales growth to justify the higher multiple.

They have good capacity to make a decent acquisition, but they will probably need to do a bolt on, not one like Statseeker where they had to go in and do a whole lot of work (that process is not over btw). Statseeker has taken longer to 'get right' than I expected, which is why I want to wait to see some progress before I get more interested.

That said, it is undeniably cheap here and I think you'll make money. I just want either a larger margin of safety, some progress on sales growth or the seller to exit or hold off so there isn't an opportunity cost for holding TCN (I have a lot of ideas that warrant investment at the moment, just trying to pick the best ones).

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Thanks for your insights @ambitious.1, your research is always very deep.

TCN Price at posting: 7.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Thanks for your insights @ambitious.1, your research is always...

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