WR I agree with you re: timing of the good news flowing in July reflecting the RBL and increased June production.
This puts the option holders and Con note holders in a pickle as the clock runs out. They can't convert and sell straight into the market. Not enough volume on slow news. So they need the cash upfront to convert (but may not have it!).
Wall at 17c is probably them waiting for a buyer to come along. With expiry + good news, I think the wall will lift. Great oportunity to buy at 17c IMHO. Or at 16.5c if you are good at playing chicken. Once we get to 2H of the year, I think the chance will soon go. Topped up at 17c myself a few days ago
AOK Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held