My reckoning was based on:
* Current business (without further acquisitions) will probably get to $50m EBITDA
* Acquisitions from debt facilities could by another $20m EBITDA (after synergies)
* EV/EBITDA of 8x (based on maximum Gemini transaction multiple of 7.5x)
* EV of $560m, less $40m net debt, gives $520m market cap
* 473m listed shares + 25m unlisted shares = 498m shares
* Share price of $1.04 (assumes the 19m unlisted options won't be exercised given the $1.20 exercise price)
There is probably capacity for more debt to be taken on for acquisitions etc., further synergies as they grow, and possibly EV/EBITDA multiple expansion but I am happy to cash out and move on elsewhere.
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3 | 2596 | 1.045 |
3 | 3726 | 1.040 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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