AMA 0.00% 6.6¢ ama group limited

My reckoning was based on: * Current business (without further...

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  1. 1,782 Posts.
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    My reckoning was based on:

    * Current business (without further acquisitions) will probably get to $50m EBITDA

    * Acquisitions from debt facilities could by another $20m EBITDA (after synergies)

    * EV/EBITDA of 8x (based on maximum Gemini transaction multiple of 7.5x)

    * EV of $560m, less $40m net debt, gives $520m market cap

    * 473m listed shares + 25m unlisted shares = 498m shares

    * Share price of $1.04 (assumes the 19m unlisted options won't be exercised given the $1.20 exercise price)

    There is probably capacity for more debt to be taken on for acquisitions etc., further synergies as they grow, and possibly EV/EBITDA multiple expansion but I am happy to cash out and move on elsewhere.
 
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Mkt cap ! $286.9M
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6.6¢ 454517 3
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