ICQ 0.00% 29.5¢ icar asia limited

Last 4C guided to $5750 in costs. I’ve got really similar...

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  1. 1,939 Posts.
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    Last 4C guided to $5750 in costs.
    I’ve got really similar numbers to you. Although I arrive at 33% CAGR by putting in a big bump in Q1 followed by relatively flat quarters thereafter. Repeat again in 2020.

    In 2015 Q1 growth was 30.42% vs Q4 2014. In 2016 Q1 growth was 12.49% vs Q4 2015. In 2017 Q1 growth was 38.09% vs Q4 2016. In 2018 Q1 growth was 41.3% vs Q4 2017

    There is clearly some seasonality and I think it’s reasonable to assume a revenue step of 30-40%+ for the current quarter.

    In my model I’ve assumed 35%, which = operational cash outflow of $1.67M.

    That leaves cash of ~$7.6 - $7.8M depending on investing expenses. The cashbutn rate should drop marginally through the rest of the year, but we’ll need better than a flat Q2, Q3, & Q4 to make sure the next revenue step up in Q1 2020 takes us past CF+.

    It’s certainly gonna be tight.
 
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