Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-14

getready,

Yes, I have revisited my model and there are clearly some variables at play here which they are either not divulging or are too complex to model.  Genuine examples might be (1) vacancy rates in new/existing apartments (2) general climatic conditions (eg if not as hot then people use less energy) (3) impact of renewable energy (eg increasing use of solar panels) and so forth (4) increasing delay in payments and/or bad and doubtful debts.  We must also not discount the possibility that LPE are leading us up the garden path although I have no evidence to support this.

They have put enough warning signs in the latest 4c to indicate that they will not be CFP any time soon.

But here's a simpler way of viewing overall profitability: I have made a simple model (attached below) which has customer revenues increasing at $1m per quarter in line with GwH growth.  Product costs are 80% of the following quarters customer revenue.  Fixed costs are fixed.  You will see that breakeven does not come until customer revenue is much higher than it is today.


The above table is not a prediction, it just shows that even excluding all the other variable factors, and with customers growing (a good thing) and margins positive and strong, it takes quite a time before CFP is reached.  This is excluding interest charges, cost of acquiring new business etc.

For this reason I don't think we will be consistently CFP for another 12-18 months at best.  I think I have stated this before so hopefully am not one of those that will be "named and shamed"

DYOR of course.