I have been modelling futures beyond july 1 it is really naive...

I have been modelling futures beyond july 1 it is really naive to think/guess a % and especially 40%. Generally a small market consumer i.e resident is going to see 23-31% increase due to raw market increases there are also politics where gov a f $#@€ with the bits they control. We have seen they reduced renewable increase by a tiny bit which messed up our modelling. Each retailer has a diffenet exposure and then networks whicj in most part are fixed give or take a few adjustments almost negligible.
Now the question which has me stumped how are these increases pushed to lpe customer increases and lpe costs. Lpe has same cost bases as any retailer no matter how big or small all energy cost the same the but the beauty of lpe consumer offer is the volume based network increases are reduced. The cost of energy under my understanding is fixed forward so there will be increases but they should be slight at worst new customers will remain with or get the same as always lower than above mentioned market.
I have alot of trouble running a model on this as lpe have nothing standard every job is independently priced and i for the life of me cannot isolate the variables (have in part time worked it for past month) all i can see is consumer offer in every case is well below albeit cents than any market retailer can even supply for.