A "spark" might be commercial performance rather than potential. Coys can only spruik potential for so long without delivering commercial fundamentals. Not unusual for small cap biotechs needing lengthy trails.
msb is in a similar situation with 30 times rgs mkt cap and far more advanced trials - but a lot of interest.
The Japan deal was good - at the last minute financially. But long delayed & unknown "income" milestones. The re-rate catalysts from Edison (incl. Japan deal) occurred & no SP movement except down - not a good sign. Its not capping, mkt manipulation, holidays, EOFY, rgs invisibility or drop bears IMO. Their chronically poor comms dont help.
Investors and the mkt seem to have lost interest & there may still be skepticism from the ABC(?) The mkt does not need to "find out" about rgs. It is reluctant to invest in what rgs currently present as potential -v- risk IMO. The coy could "break" but either way.
The progenza trial results may spark some interest and milestone $. But commercialisation & demonstration of sales or licensing revenue are key interest drivers. And there is not much solid there yet. Phase I is safety & rgs may be cautious about prelim efficacy claims after the ABC.
I may be wrong but I thin some of their other trials may be delayed. Its difficult to see where their topical gel is w/ partnerships & trials other than "in discussions with potential". That that dragged out for over a year with the Japan deal. But came good in the end. Hopefully the same for Progenza & other products...eventually. But with rgs timelines & delays & past on-time delivery performance - not an incentive for investors to rush in.
If the progenza trial results are positive the market & SP response will be worth watching. If a positive break it may "spark". If its the same as the Japan deal that may not be a good sign.
The coy is 50% its last cap raise value without demonstrated efficacy for any product. But operating cash is there for another year. Unless the rgs board decide to splash another large performance bonuses on their CEO & CSO for returning value (-70% at the time - the "spark" for my sale of rgs.)
And the possibility of milestone $ if the mystery milestones are met.
An on time Phase I progenza report with positive results may "get that spark". Given past performance the report before the end of Q2 CY17 would be a surprise.
GLTAH
Disclaimer: Sold rgs holdings last year & topped up msb...now up 125%.
RGS Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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