Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-2

Cash at 31/12/15 $2813.7k versus  my guess of 2622k (see below) so spending less than expected $181k per week it was actual $135k per week.

If they have $2814 at Dec31 there is 12 weeks between 31/12/14 to 26/3/15. So cash should be $1194k at 26/3/15 without CR. (2814-12x135k =)

To my thinking this means two things, both good. No CR needed till EMA opinion and low R&D spend in Dec Qtr means they are not madly performing research trying to answer a difficult or unexpected problem that has arisen.

They have previously said they have answers to all the questions raised but delays always raise doubt, but low R&D spend is a positive.  


Prev post on CR:

As below expect closing cash bal 31/12/14 around 2622k (actual amount will be confirmed in appendix 4C posted late Jan). We expect EMA opinion 8 weeks into Mar qtr on 26/02/15. Cash consumption per week Jan likely to be in range 108k-181k I estimate 130k week. 130 x 8 weeks = 1040k leaving expected cash balance of $1582k.

That is without other working capital measures, such as delaying creditors, delaying research payments.

I would think the level of uncertainity is too great for anything but a small raising before 26/2, and should not be necessary unless the research is dramatically increased. Ever if spending was as bad as Sep which he said was extremely high then sep cash 4567 - 181x 13 - 181x8 = 766k in bank Feb 26th.

If my math is wrong please correct me

As prev post:
181k per week over the sept qtr. $2485k / 13 weeks.

In qtr with no extra research burn is $1400k (about $108k /week).

To respond for Dec meeting need answers by 17/11/14, which is mid-way through qtr so expect burn if $1945k (1400+(2485-1400)/2) in Dec, but depends on the billing pattern for research.

Closing cash sep14 $4567 - dec est 1945k = 2622k est begin Jan when CE expected. Tank low but not empty.

15M wouldnt be a big raising 1 for 6 at 30c (adit 50M shares15M/.3) (if price didnt kick on CE) or 1 for 14 (adit 18.8M shares 15/.8) at 80c if share price higher with CE.

All speculation in any case, but cash required early 2015, if it is with CE mark the dillution would be small. You would expect the $10M for FDA stage3 trial to repay itself many times over with US sales. The 5M is unfortunately the cost of CHMP delays.

Just how I see it anyway.