"RECs are like cash, but in a different currency. However, the...

"RECs are like cash, but in a different currency. However, the fed gov has guaranteed a set price to redeem these, with the catch that sellers have to wait about (from memory) 18 months"

I have tried to find how this gov guarantee works and it seem to me that it is not a guarantee at all.

What I think is happening is that if you aspire to the government set price of $40 for 1 REC, you put your name on the register and wait your turn. The operators who need to purchase REC because of statutory requirements can buy them from the people on the register on the FIFO - first in, first out- basis. But they can also source their certificates from others who did not bother waiting in the line and sell them on the open market for what they can get.
Press reports indicate that there are plenty around, due to the renewable markets that behaved in totally differed fashion than the politicians expected.

AS as far as I am concerned, the $40 or 18 months is a myth.
As long as there are people prepared to sell RECs for less than $40, CBD can wait for their preferred price until kingdom come.
Government does not guarantee the price, it just runs a department that maintains the register and facilitates matching of sellers and buyers. By deciding the RECs value
they basically set their maximum price. But government does not offer to pay $40 for the REC as far as I know.

IMO the RECs are a bit like the Greek bonds at the moment.
Bonds that were issued at 100 each are now changing hands 20 or 30 each because of high risk of not being redeemable at all.

If CBD is wrong and the price of REC does not rise, when the loans fall due they will have to sell the RECs to pay the loans back in full. No profit and interest paid for nothing.
Much better to sell them now IMO, at least you know where you stand, financially. Business should be borrowing for profitable projects, not to speculate on future price of RECs.