Hi
@Fire Bull. I take your point on inventory but even after this quarter it will still be elevated relative to history (normalised against sales) so there is still room for further working capital improvements, albeit you are right that this process can't continue indefinitely.
Underlying EBITDA of $3.6m should have very strong cash conversion given all the capex is complete and we have enough capacity for twice the current volumes. This represented growth of 33% on the previous year and I think they can do the same again this year. This would give EBITDA of $4.8 and a CFO estimate of $3.4m assuming no further working capital improvements. But I think there is likely another WC release to come which would get us to over $4m in cash flow next year.
The comments around soft sales into the national retailers are consistent with the previous 2 quarters as well so shouldn't be news to the market other than maybe disappointment that it still isn't fully resolved. It feels like when this handbrake is released the results will step change.
After today's move the EV is now $30m. So FY18 EV/CFO is 7.5x or EV/EBITDA is 6x on my numbers. This looks very cheap to me especially if we think about the growth in the proprietary brands.
I'm not saying GRB is the same quality as Heineken or Carlsberg but these brewers trade on EV/EBITDA of 10x for slower growth but stronger brands and management so plenty of opportunity for re-rate.
Happy to hear where you agree or disagree with any of my comments above.
