Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly and Progress Report Q4 FY17, page-14

Hi @smallbear

I get market cap of $39.3m after today based on 960m shares so EV is about $34m.

I take your point on capex but lets say there will be a nominal maintenance requirement of about 500k per year to be prudent. So if they do a 33% increase in underlying EBITDA in FY18 then we get $4.3m normalised EBIT. Then there are finance costs of say another 500k for $5m revolving facility and $1m cash advance so we get $3.8m PBT or $2.7m NPAT @30% tax.

Then there are the $9m of retained losses which I think can be offset against tax for a while worth about $3m so perhaps EV is more like $31m.

So EV/NPAT is about 11.5 which is decent value but depends on 33% uplift in EBITDA which seems pretty aggressive to me. If management provides similar guidance then I would be more prepared to base my valuation off it but even then I'd probably like to buy a bit cheaper.