AHF 22.6% 3.8¢ australian dairy nutritionals limited

Point taken except that most of the irrigation works' costs were...

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    Point taken except that most of the irrigation works' costs were repeatedly talked of /about in reference to the Q2/16, Q3/16 and Q4/16, CF statements. Not so, in relation to the Q1/17, or Q2/17 CF statements. Even the stated operating CF expenditures between each of the periods was vastly different (ie: at the Investing Cashflow level, where previously this had all been talked about or referenced).

    Equally, within the DAIRY RELATED COSTS equation, there were significant variations that arose, for the first time, either during 2H16 or in H17. For instance:

    * Repairs & Maintenance, averaged at around $95,000 in each of 2H15 and H16, but then jumped to $174,000 in 2H17 and remained very high at $142,000 during H17. Compared to that $95,000 early trend, the higher /over expenditure was +$79,000 in 2H16 and +$47,000 in H17 (ie: +$126,000 over 12 months, or +$2,500 extra per week on repairs & maintenance).

    * Animal Health more than doubled during 2H16 (from H16's $71,000 outcome) to $143,000, then fell back to a continuing high of $80,000 during H17. Both these costs remained high compared to the $65,000 average of 2H15 and H16. In other words, capable of explanation, but not really being controlled.

    And so it goes on. But there is another quick way of looking at this --> comparing the costs of 2H15 and H16 (ie: C15) to 2H16 and H17 (ie: C16). Once done, the differences between the years is startling, to say the least (for startling, read into it --> requiring serious explanation by management, the executive and the Board):

    What this tells me (using the midpoint herd size in each instance as my normaliser) is that, all things being equal, the DAIRY RELATED COSTS during C17 were still $800,000 higher than what they should have been on a normalised basis whilst they were $2.5M at variance to the C15 outcomes. Thes efigures are significant and they all point to something else which hasn't yet been explained to shareholders, or indeed is likely or capable xof being readily explained. Hence the dramatic doubling in "other" costs to >$950,000 during C16. And that's just for starters.

    The table below explains this with "N" as "normaliser":

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9
    0 DAIRY RELATED COSTS                
    1 Item C15 C16 Delta Herd C16 Herd C17 Delta C16 Norm DeltaN
    2 Feed costs 2,206,659 3,907,831 1,701,172 2141 3231 1.51 3332055 575,776
    3 Repairs, maintenance and vehicle costs 194,526 315,789 121,263       293734 22,055
    4 Animal health costs 130,850 223,148 92,298       197584 25,564
    5 Land holding and lease costs 80,596 91,063 10,467       121700 -30,637
    6 Breeding and herd testing expenses 105,838 180,782 74,944       159815 20,967
    7 Dairy shed expenses 79,492 104,212 24,720       120033 -15,821
    8 Electricity 114,495 127,424 12,929       172887 -45,463
    9 Other dairy related costs 472,030 954,465 482,435       712765 241,700
    10 Total 3,384,486 5,904,714 2,520,228       5110574 794,140
 
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