I hope you realise that an investment into any oil explorer (with no current proven reserves) is essentially an investment into an option that they may 'discover' oil. And that pricing an option looks at probability/risk as well as possible value of possible discovery. And that possible value is directly impacted by price of oil.
To be clear, if PoO crashed to 5 year lows the possible prize would not be worth the hunt and our shareprice would likely reflect that. And as PoO soars, the hunt becomes a more attractive proposition. You can bet that potential farminees will be pricing their offers on the basis of their PoO outlook (amongst other things).
So Bobby, all in all, I would think the PoO does not "mean SFA" to 88E. And Brent (real time) is as good a proxy for ANS (2 day delay) as there is. IMO.
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