Either the AOG board are telling significant porkies or they are tooling with us big time or there is real optimism in the wind.
The 30/11/18 announcement could not be more bulish: "encouraged by inquiries from a significant number of parties, mostly from Asia, North America and Australia interested in transactions with Aveo Group either as a whole or for a partnership at the asset level, as part of the Strategic Review of Aveo Group’s retirement portfolio and operations"
The short trading in AOG is not significant. Mulpha keep buying. I just think the market is watching AOG and how they handle the sale of a significant overhang in development stock.
I suspect the real answer is 'not well' given market conditions and hence no surplus cash to splash on buy back.
But all previous sales in this sector have been at premiums to NTA. The latest was just a few months ago when Sun paid a 25% ish premium to NTA for a reasonable stake in Ingenia.
My tip is we are in for a significant bust up of AOG as we know it. Let's face it, the current regime ain't cutting the mustard and the Seng family need to be exited.
i'm thinking all non retirement assets will be exited, poorly performing villages sold and the core DMF model sold off to a partnership of "money-bags" where a stable almost annuity style revenue flow happens...but under a different name. Aveo is still on the nose in the view of the public.
Perhaps the Aveo Freedom model might morph off into a new aged care company with a separate money bags cornerstone investor.
I wouldn't be surprised if part of the land bank (I'm thinking Springfield near Ipswich) wil be sold off to yet another partnership which follows the INA model of land lease rather than DMF.
At the end of the day, AOG will be a retirement accommodation company specialising in high rise villages with investment interests in a number of speciality partnerships.
Surely the sum of the parts in such a radical split will be closer to NTA.
But hey, what would I know! I'll stop here because my thoughts of them investing in a medical marijuana company might be a bit far fetched, though I do believe they could use the product!
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AOG Price at posting:
$1.56 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held