Thanks for elaborating, the one thing it fails to illustrate is...

Thanks for elaborating, the one thing it fails to illustrate is the massive cash pile. If 536 mil gets spent on buy back shares (assuming the anz transaction falls over which is extremely unlikely imo) it would mean they could buy back 1 in 4.5shares on issue. (That together with the 10% of net shorts will have a massive effect on the share price).

Alternatively if anz transaction continues, and While I think there will be significant costs for the royal commission and the net margin will decline slightly, the fumas are higher than last year and the cost cutting initiatives further advanced so I estimate fcf will be broadly similar to the 225mil from fy18 but for conservatism let’s say it drops to 200mil. Then add the 14% yield on the 81% of the 950mil for 6 months = 60mil (anz currently paying) plus 3 months of the full anz return which might be another 30mil. So conservatively I get fcf to be 290mil for fy19. (This year I think fcf will be below ‘underlying eps’ due to the transaction and royal commission.). But that brings the p/e on underlying earnings back down to below 10 which on an historical context is cheap. I also think it’s wrong to call ifl ex growth like the banks because there is going to be accelerated consolidation over the next few years but that’s just my opinion.