It is entirely based on how they negotiate the royalty. And not...

It is entirely based on how they negotiate the royalty.

And not based on the cost of the product, but I would think a percentage of the value added.  But there are many ways to figure out the pricing. 

I presume ADO managers have a clue as to which way they want to go, and once agreement is n place, we will know. From that will be estimates of revenues and then we get a shift in the SP to reflect that.

The SP wont be moving until the estimated revenues are announced, which is after the pricing is in place, which is after a decision to proceed with are technology is made.

It is actually possible that the SP wont move until the revenues and also income/profit appears on the first 4C !

That would would be after first 'actual' sales. The time from approval to implement and first actual sales could be x years.