I agree almost entirely, but still think that the way the OEM spiel is being articulated by management is more to try and push an agenda (ie the SIA). The OEM revenue loss was talked down in February as the company progressed other revenue streams and everything was/is looking bright. Now in my view, they're intimating that they need the scheme implemented to get by. Seems to be a bit of a convenient flipflop on this.
In my opinion, if ICU has had access to the books for the past while, and come along with this offer, they will know full well what they think MLA is worth, and are pricing at a level that they think they can get the company for rather than a valuation, hence the arbitrary "30% above the 15day VWAP" . Given the strengthened balance sheet, cash and minimum cost savings you outlined, I'd guess they'd be able to extract many multiples of that figure from the business. Their offer is predatory, and based off an illiquid share price, which to be fair even at the levels of 5c-6.6c, only a small amount of volume actually changed hands.
In saying all that it's becoming apparent that another suitor is increasingly unlikely, and I do agree that your time horizons are probably about right. I'm just disappointed that it's likely a done deal, as I've said previously I feel current management don't have enough skin in the game (and if anything they're incentivised by potential ICU roles long term)... looks like we'll be getting the 8.6c...
all IMO DYOR etc..
MLA Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held