Given this is a public listed company and that I mentioned I'm watching it closely, I would argue that what happens in the future with FNT concerns me just as much as it concerns you and anyone else who is or might consider investing.
Yes there is potential with FNT that could be realised at anytime, but, the odds are surely lengthening. Sinivit would have been a real win and a price re-rate for the resource it would have provided for the company to focus on; however, it wasn't awarded to FNT. That the company now sits second in line to a project it was first in line for doesn't provide confidence there will be a successful outcome. The SP decline since Sinivit is the best evidence of what the market thinks about this.
A JV with a major is the most likely path to medium term success for FNT but won't guarantee results or necessarily mean a significant re-rate in the short-medium term. The market remains relatively weak while PNG remains PNG, and this plays into the major's hand. I would be surprised if a future deal provided much to FNT beyond providing expenditure for a large percentage of which ever project is involved. This doesn't provide much free cash for FNT to put into the ground at other projects so further CR's must be on the cards. I can't comment on how good at promotion and negotiation the Board is but it is still a tough climate to get many sweeteners in deals.
While I don't deny the EL's applied for represent good ground, the more licenses in play mean greater expenditure commitments (once licenses are granted). It is always necessary to balance portfolio size and quality to resources. That the recent strategy update discusses focus on some and not all projects suggest FNT is overbalanced and under funded. It is positive steps are being taken to rectify this as the company needs to get a bit of focus and progress projects forward instead of paying money to simply house them. Decent JV companies don't buy in just because a project exists. They need to see the project value and potential being demonstrated, preferably through more advanced sampling methods than stream sediments and rockchips, which obviously cost a great deal more to undertake.
Don't get me wrong, GDog, FNT does have potential. But currently as the year slowly draws to a close I see more chance of weakness in the months ahead than the opposite. Hopefully some positive news will occur and the SP will right itself. If it does and I don't hold I'll happily watch and say well done. If it doesn't, and the company prospects look more promising in 2018, then perhaps I'll buy back in. Either way, it concerns me.
Bornite
FNT Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
