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16/07/18
09:00
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Originally posted by dumbluck
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Now I could be wrong here but mining depletion of 75K oz less production YTD 46K = 29K oz for the quarter for Deflector. Looking at the last presentation 52KT development ore at 5.1g/t and development ore from Da Vinci at 11g/t+. By my calculations 29K oz=140KT milled at 90% recovery at 6.7g/t head grade. Based on what I can see the 29K oz figure looks to be plausible for the quarterly. If you take what LJ has stated at face value then this is my conclusion.
Potentially 25M+ FCF for the quarter. Considering where the company was 12 months ago it has done all that could be reasonably expected thanks significantly to a quality orebody. Most appear not to factor in the copper by-credits.
There are 3 things the company needs to do IMO. Deliver consistent production and revenue, pay off the debt, and increase reserves and resources. The company looks well positioned to deliver on these. The drill bit has given substantial share price uplift for some of the larger players and it has the potential to do so for DRM also. The production guidance looks reasonable and conservative based on reserves, without I assume any contribution from Da Vinci in FY19. I think some ore from Da Vinci has the potential to provide some uplift above guidance to date in FY19 should this be feasible.
Still think it is good value at present. Let's see what the quarterly comes out with.
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Although I would be overjoyed by $25m FCF this quarter, I think that a $10m improvement in net cash would be a terrific achievement. I do not have time to do calcs but someone else posted that 22k ounces were expected in the June Qtr?
It looks like a big Quarterly report ahead which will probably see a SP of $0.40 taken out.