1. Offers nothing new. Still organic, look at China, go to powders, sway the feng shui.
2. The Lian Hi JV appears to have been stillborn. So, what of the land @ Camperdown that was bought and settled on in early March?
3. CDC plant utilisation is <50%.
4. The WOW contracts are covering supply streams into 100+ Victorian stores. Overall, Woolies has >300 stores in Victoria, alone (992 nationwide). So, it's a bit supply contract only; not much of a supply.
5. 90% dependence on two customers - Woolies and Aussie Farmers. So much then for the independent stores, Lencia, etc.
6. The big talk is about tapping into the farm values and of likely stripping away the stapling rights, possibly to free up market value. They want to go from 6 farms to 30 within 5 years. That's probably about $150M in new, required capital, alone (ie: average, for example, of $5M per acquired property).
7. The suggestion therefore of growing to a market cap of $250M within five years is misleading. This will not, for example, represent an 8-fold increase over the current SP, but rather, more likely, substantial new capital calls going into the future. Most likely then, on a fully diluted basis (my estimates), there are likely to be greater 500M shares on issue in due course, suggesting an upper side value accretion to 50c, but little more (in 5 years time). Take it however to 700M shares on issue (ie: with 500M new shares), and the value accretion tops out at 35c. Either way, not much of an improvement considering the time frame being 5+ years.
8. Nothing actually yet agreed upon. It's all still, gunna, cumma, makka. In other words, blue skies ahead but falcons dreaming.
9. Much of the presentation has been devoted to how hard done by the directors and their associates have been including that they have taken less fees than they could have whilst performing then considerably more tasks than one originally expected, etc. All of this seems to be about trying to head off against a second strike, except that the presentation itself has already failed from the outset, spiraling out of control from almost the very instant that it was released.
10. The comment regarding TAU's convertible notes being converted at well above the prevailing SP is laughable. First of all, they reduced the conversion price from 20c to 18c. They then applied the new 18c rate to the interest component as well (when they should not have done so). At the time of conversion, the SP was 18/19c (so, bang on the money). What then of all those shareholders who themselves have suffered significant SP declines at the expense of previously touted aims, ambitions and expressions of interest by this company? This lamentable comment on TAU's part is illustrative of virtually everything that has been an epic fail thus far in respect of this company.
11. This therefore suggests that CDC is loss making and unlikely to turn profitable for some time to come whilst ending cash (Jun30) will be down significantly, so below the $1M mark.
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This is not a good outcome for Michael or his crew.
Equally, having a professional presentation, criticising competitors, whilst then talking of having "skin in the game" is amateurish, to say the least. As some people have said, these people are clowns, not professionals; buffoonish, not skilled; sloth like, not sleek of hand or foot; parasites, not enablers.
AHF Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
