a couple of cases with different presumptions, based on that Morgans $438m unrisked
A large chunk of that Morgans unrisked price is Balama ($188m, vs $168m for Montepuez), so it's bold to add that in. They risked that at 20%. That derisked valuation also factors in the two stages of Montepuez, which implies some Balama lower grade contribution to that. Plus something for resource upgrades and spherical graphite. And I think the graphite price assumptions are pushing it, for now at least. So I think these numbers are optimistic.
You could arguably halve these numbers for the next several months at least, even allowing for the outstanding resource drilling. And then Balama is upside from there.
Under the RCF deal it's a A$35m total raising including the US$5m placement to RCF
Assume initially the options dilution is 334m*2 = 668m
(334 jul18 ops, 333m to RCF, but subject to exchange rate variation)
So, looking at scenarios from there:
First, your scenario, adjusted slightly for the above;
Existing shares 764m.
$35m raising @ $0.06 = 467m
10c options = 668m
=> 1899m shares, but there's another 70m ops and perf shares
=> 1970m fully diluted
so close enough to your 2b
=> 22cps as you said, unrisked
I say 11cps for Montepuez is as hard as you can go on that right now
and that 11cps fully derisked for Montepuez stage 1+2 then begs the question about presuming the jul18 ops get into the money.
Possibly more realistically, worst case raising at 5cps, but then assume the jul18 ops expire; [email protected] 700m
334m 10c ops to RCF,
=> 1869m sh,
=> 23cps
Not much of a different outcome, except RCF gets more of the company and more upside from there
If by some miracle those jul18 10c ops get in the money then to be consistent you might have the cap raise at 7.5cps or above. Maybe even 10cps. [email protected] 280m [email protected] 373m
=> 1712 or 1805m sh,
=> 24-26cps
So all those long term scenarios are roughly in the same ballpark for upside. But I don't think any of them justify 10cps until stage 1+2 of Montepuez are derisked, with some Balama lower grade graphite thrown into that mix.
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Best case before today was the 10c ops in the money for the equity component and A$33m debt. That assumed DF signed some serious offtakes for Montepuez stage 1+2. Under that presumption we may have had;
=> 1176m fully diluted, including the perf shares and various other options on issue
=> 37cps
So what was a potential 6->37 6.1x
is now 6->22 3.7x, or maybe a 5-> 23, 4.6x, if the raising is a 5cps and you can get in there
so pretty much the same point you made in your other post
imo Flanagan needed to get some further offtake agreements in place to make those jul18 options work. Even if he does that now, the upside is diluted.
Still a worthy investment, but RCF has the incentive to drive this as low as possible before Flanagan has to raise the A$35m and they close the deal.
