Originally posted by Mickem
Hi ed
thanks for your recent couple of post. Always good to here others thoughts on where we are on contracts. Although we always want new contract news it's important to keep track of past announcements as this helps understand the likelihood of the forecast being meet.hope this explains my wanting to understand the canal project. Was surprised that most posters either don't know or didn't comment on my request for info on this. I like to think of myself as well read on the company so if I don't know then I would say most holders don't know.
The canal project is a big part of my thinking towards the forecast, my post on the 26th lays out where I think the money is coming from, I was surprised by your comment regarding stage 2 of the canal as this wasn't my understanding and blow a hole in my forecast. I took your advise and made my own enquiry on this. I will not detail private discussions but I will share I'm happy with the figures I'm basing my forecasts on including stage 2 and say I believe your take on stage 2 to be wrong. I also don't believe stage 2 is in the pipeline so from this you should be able to work out what's happing with it. Sorry for being criptic
as I said the other day the canal project is very important to me and future revenue. I think I heard or read somewhere we are dealing with about 40km long and from what I understood being done in stages as we block of section. Prue speculation on my part but if I,m right on the length how many stages cover that
distance, could there be more stages in future years.
other point I will remind holders on is the company was aim in the future of 25% revenue from repeat/maintenance work and the company has also stated many of bhzq contracts have long term 15 to 20 years ongoing maintenance programs attached. This canal project I believe will prove to be so important in years to come. I don't believe most people fully appreciate its long term revenue potential.
i hope this might clear up some things for you are thinking of selling some and might be basing that on the wrong assumptions
thanks
mickem
I checked back on company announcements. Stage 2 was announced in October 2017 at $5m and the AGM forecast of $22m sales in 2017-18 said a Chinese contract for $5m would be signed in February 2018, which was presumably stage 2 of the canals. It was never announced as signed in February 2018 and there is no mention of Stage 2 in subsequent quarterlies, the half yearly or final reports. It simply disappears. This probably helps explain why we undershot the forecast revenue for last year.
The half yearly released on 23/2/18 only mentions North China canal works worth $5m, with $1-2m maintenance. Nothing on Stage 2 when the contract was supposed to be being signed.
The forecast for 2018-19 does include $10 m for water treatment in China and the October 2018 update the new $1.5m canal order. So the forecast for this year could include an assumption Stage 2 occurs this year (as did the forecast for last year). However, obviously the timing slipped though that has never been announced.