It's very hard to judge the likelihood of a win in these big cases. We can only try to deduce based on commercial decisions that have been made to date by those who are more incentivised and have inside knowledge.
So yes, agree the CR price and timing is one indication, potentially, but there could be other commercial reasons for that timing. However, the closest 'pure' commercial decision I can find as an indicator of success is the fact they have been able to take out insurance against this potential major loss. Given its a new policy and these 2 cases are the nearest risks for the policy writer, I would have thought they would have excluded these 2 if they were anywhere less than 50% possibility of success. The premiums will not cover these losses for a number of years, from memory.
I'm also keen to get back into the stock given it's growth profile, value and current market conditions, but wouldn't want to be fully loaded when these big cases are decided. There is enough manipulation and short selling on the stock already and drop will be extreme should the result be negative.
IMF Price at posting:
$2.90 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
