Ann: AGM Presentation, page-8

I haven't taken a close look at IMF from a valuation perspective for a while, in truth. You could either wait for Wivenhoe/Westgem to resolve before buying, or you could figure out the value of everything else and then back into a market-implied FV of those two cases to figure out what today's valuation is saying - Wivenhoe/Westgem are uncertain but their expected value is higher than zero, i think.

I'd probably be interested in buying the stock (i.e. at a discount to fair value) under the following conditions:

- NAV for co-investments, maybe i'd apply a slight time value increment;
- 6x expected EBITDA under fund 4 / new waterfall structure, assuming returns compress from those historically achieved (given so much capital is flooding into the sector) and they deploy $200m p.a.

The 6x EBITDA multiple might seem low but that's because the entirety of their profits out of FM (in terms of fees, i.e. ignoring coinvestment earnings) are coming from performance fees - the base fees just cover their overheads. You can't argue for double digit EBITDA multiples here (as you can for scaled alternative asset managers) because the profit in IMF's case will be substantially more volatile (given it comes almost entirely from the performance fees).