I agree with your view. Probably 1-2 of the investments will...

I agree with your view. Probably 1-2 of the investments will make the bulk of any return (if that happens) and 3-4 will be duds.

I think this raises a problem for the NTA valuation though. At present the NTA assumes all investments will have an exit and a return will be crystalised. Yet it is likely we may never see a cent from at least a few of these companies.

So I'd argue the share price should always be at a steep discount to NTA to account for the assets that will never be realised. Particularly seeing Bailador has no long term history of what % of assets are realised.