FSA gave EPS guidance by stealth at the AGM (i.e. combining dividend guidance of 6.5 -6.75cps with payout ratio guidance of between 50% and 60%). EPS guidance is therefore between 11.3cps (low point) and 13.5cps (high point) with a mid point of 12.4cps. This compares to 11.74cps in FY15.
FSA has a long track record of beating guidance so I would tend to rely on the mid to the high point of the EPS guidance range of 12.4 - 13.5cps, or growth of 5% - 15%.
Nothing wrong with that! Hard to understand the massive sell off, it seems people are focusing on the negatives of new debt agreement numbers being down. But we know these can fluctuate from year to year, and this company remains the dominant player in the market. At $1.07, the stock is trading on an undemanding FY16e PE of 8.6x - 7.9x and offering a 6.3% yield. All we need to make a 50% return from here is for the stock to re-rate to a miserly PE of 12x!
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