ALY 0.00% 0.7¢ alchemy resources limited

Ann: AGM Presentation, page-12

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  1. 556 Posts.
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    Pfuzzy ... You seem to have a very pessimistic outlook re a number of shares we hold in common, which makes me wonder why you continue to hold them. Buying explorers always requires an optimistic outlook on life, and perhaps the whiff of adventure and the spirit of the punt ... aside from fundamentals, whatever they are ... and if you don't have those traits of character, then I don't think explorers are a good fit to a personal portfolio. They also require considerable patience. You raise a number of points, which I will try to briefly respond to:

    1) Gold: the AUD appears to be in sharp decline, fed by declining world wide commodity prices ... iron ore, oil, coal etc ... but not declining gold or copper prices. Those commodity prices in decline are likely to continue to decline, and the AUD with it. In other words, the exchange rate component of the AUD gold price appears to be nicely looked after.

    2) US$ gold: lower oil prices might suggest lower worldwide inflation, which might arguably suggest a smaller role for gold in hedging against inflation. But this inflation effect is trivial in comparison to the bigger picture of declining oil prices ... namely significant instability to the world economy, and in particular to the Russian economy, which will likely see demand for gold increase, in its traditional role as a security against uncertainty. The Euro zone is already unstable, and Greece is rearing its head again. The Americans continue to print cash like they own a printing press (?), and have no other clue to economic management ... like most of Western economies which appear to be battling to just stand still, and teetering on ever increasing debt. Meanwhile, the Russians, Indians, Chinese and most Asian economies continue to accumulate gold ... while the western ETF funds have largely sold out of whatever gold holdings they had left. There has been a massive shift of real gold holdings from the West to the East via Switzerland. Those western gold funds don't have much left to sell. In summary: I think, on the balance of probabilities, that US$ gold is on a clear upward trajectory ... Combine that with the AUD heading downwards, and Australian gold explorers and miners are looking very attractive.

    3) Management of ALY has not "squandered all that cash" sitting on their hands, as you claim. Quite the opposite, they have got IGO in to pay for millions of dollars of exploration, while retaining all gold rights, and a share of whatever else they find. That was a pretty smart move ... and a pretty good deal for all involved.

    4) Far from your suggestion that IGO is the last roll of the dice, I would suggest that it is the first roll of the dice, in a game that shows considerable opportunity for positive outcomes. Have you even checked the gold grades on ALY tenements? They are amongst the highest grades in the Bryah Basin. I think your pessimism is ungrounded, and your critique of management overly harsh and overdone.
 
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