"All this effort searching for faults, what a waste of time!"
Really? Appears that you've delved deep into the legalities of the Prospectus to ascertain details regarding land ownership, so as a holder you have increased your knowledge of a project in which you have a vested interest!
To be clear on my intentions and "searching for faults":
I was close to buying this stock last week as the grades cannot be ignored and are truly world-class, however I became aware of the production deadline due to a solitary post on this forum, nestled in between the talk of incredible grades and potential takeover scenarios, and that IMO such a tight will in all probability be very challenging to achieve.
Why would you assume the government wouldn't grant another year if good progress had been made.
I decided to highlight this as a potential and significant risk as there seemed to be very little discussion on this forum and also as there has recently been an almost identical scenario involving ASXDZ who acquired a world-class coking coal asset in Poland a few years ago and had a similar clause to be in production by 2018 and recently requested for an extension which was denied by the local authorities. As the coking coal market has improved over the last few years a large Polish coal company (JSW) has been expressing an interest in PDZ's project and influencing the local authorities to play hard-ball with PDZ, and it now appears that there is a strong chance that PDZ will lose the project due to not being able to comply with the original production deadline:
The full announcement from May:https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180528/pdf/43vbpby1q2t2wq.pdf
I'm not saying that the same scenario will play out for ADT and the local authorities may 'play ball' and ensure a smooth pathway to production. However, as the value of the project grows, the more the risk grows that human nature comes into play and that the local companies and government might start to get cold-feet about allowing substantial profits to flow to a foreign entity.
I have no intention of owning this stock and no bias to seeing the share price fall, but rather to highlight a clear risk that company and most of the holders on this forum spruiking massive share price valuations and takeover scenarios, are unlikely to highlight.. If it means I am vilified for expressing contrary sentiment to current holders so be it, but nevertheless it is a risk that current and future shareholders should be aware of.
The below post from a 'heart' holder sums it up:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...308441/page-146?post_id=34397016#.W1jSybh9jZs
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$4.08 |
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-0.090(2.16%) |
Mkt cap ! $918.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$4.09 | $4.20 | $4.06 | $333.3K | 81.36K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 500 | $4.02 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$4.10 | 140 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1197 | 0.835 |
1 | 5000 | 0.815 |
3 | 9950 | 0.810 |
2 | 21000 | 0.805 |
6 | 46713 | 0.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.840 | 40000 | 1 |
0.850 | 14746 | 1 |
0.860 | 9795 | 2 |
0.875 | 9168 | 2 |
0.880 | 17293 | 2 |
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