Like
@JID (refer earlier comment below), I’m also a great fan of Jesse Livermore
I’ve only posted 2 comments on ADT so far – one at 20 cents and the other at 45 c
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ipo-adriatic-metals-limited.4086841/page-52?post_id=32918650https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...e-north-zone.4261188/page-78?post_id=33894987I posted the entire comment of Livermore then and am pasting it again.
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
“It is no trick at all to be right on the market,” he adds. “I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”https://michaelsincere.com/six-trading-lessons-from-speculator-jesse-livermore/There is a wealth of info in Jesse Livermore’s wisdom / life, and you would appreciate them all the more when you realize the
timeliness of his wisdom that he passed these comments a century backand they seem so relevant even for ADT today.
There are plenty of great commenters on ADT and not sure if I can add anything. Just a few thoughts below.Apologies if some or all have been mentioned by other commenters in the past (quite possible)
1/ I’ve personally been sitting tight (Jesse Livermore style) from 20 cents and doing nothing. Not going bad so far as can be seen and Jesse is spot on!
2/
Hopefully 60 cents is now new strong support. This was resistance earlier and has the ability to form a strong support base
3/ Great news today and here is an article with excerpt -
“The new approvals increase the land holdings at Rupice more than 5-fold and includes a 500m region north and down-plunge of a 66 metre intersection of high-grade mineralisation that returned an amazing grade of 9.5% zinc, 4.9% lead, 2.4g/t gold, 187g/t silver, 0.5% copper and 56% barite from 204m down-hole in October.” - excerpthttps://thewest.com.au/business/pub...es-its-land-position-in-bosnia-ng-b881015047z4/ Seems like some
great accumulation going on since long. Although it would be nice to see fireworks in the share price, the longer the accumulation is going on, the
better the eventual fireworks would be after the bigger players have had their fill
5/ I like to keep Elliot wave theory at the back of my head where the
3rd wave is usually the most powerful one. 1
st wave would be from 17 cents to 60 cents. 2
nd wave would be the retracement since then, and then 3
rd wave starts. I’ve seen this playing on so many stocks
In light of that
@bossivictarget of 80c seems very achievablehttps://hotcopper.com.au/threads/adt-in-vareš.4522548/page-5?post_id=364001016/ I pasted this link in my May comment and am pasting it again now
http://www.usfunds.com/media/images...-08/COMM-Life-Cycle-of-a-Mine-08082014-lg.gifhttp://www.mining.com/web/knowing-where-you-are-in-the-markets-cycle/Really important reading if investing in a mining company as you can see clearly that the
best returns on ADT or any exciting mining company is in this phase now where all you sometimes need to do is “sit tight” like Livermore, in this phase where hype eventually takes over.
7/ I have several watchlists - gold, lithium, cobalt, graphite, iron, etc. and several commodity stocks and even some big companies have been hit really hard. Many juniors have been absolutely decimated.
ADT’s strength in the midst of a commodity hit has been pretty remarkable.
8/I was wondering whether a
5-10 million capital raise earlier would have been better so that instos could get set rather than having to play games with the share price non - stop, to accumulate their position? I can however also see the other point of view however if the company feels that it is too low a price for a cap raise, and the fact that ADT is cashed up and does not need to raise funds.
9/I was wondering how
Sandfire would feel about a capital raise. Maybe they too would be against it. I've wondered whether SAndfire might be more interested in eventually taking over ADT? If so, then they would be wanting to keep dilution as low as possible.
10/ I’ve seen tons of companies reach a
market cap of at least around AUD 200 million if they have a decent story where initial hype helps the share price to rise (refer earlier point on mining cycle). Of course 200 million is not some scientific figure but just an observation that I’ve seen on many companies. ADT is of course still far away from that - so still safe so far.
11/ Although I’ve mentioned about “sitting tight” and have followed it so far, I can totally see the other point of view too, and those who enjoying trading. I myself might start to trade ADT a bit now if it keeps making new highs. There was a
great trading opportunity for anyone between 40 and 60 where they could have taken a separate trading parcel while keeping their core investment parcel intact. Well done to those who managed that.
12/ A more
detailed analysis around 2 weeks back that I found online, if anyone is interested
https://www.criticalinvestor.eu/ana...s-polymetallic-explorer-significant-potential13/ I don’t know about you guys but from all Bosnian media reports that I’ve seen linked on HC, I’ve just got the idea that the
Bosnian local governments seem extremely excited about the project, the job opportunities it would create, etc. This is actually great news for ADT, as preliminary reports so far indicate some potentially good government support which is of course very useful in a different part of the world
14/ With regards to overall valuation and rise from now,
we haven’t really had a blowout phase where share price just meteorically shoots up unless you want to consider the 17 c to 60 c more in May-June. So from that perspective, I think there is still healthy accumulation going on and a blowout topping phase is still far away. So
possibly long termers can relax a bit
15/ ADT made it to the HC top 10 most discussed shares around June but has not made it since. This is actually great news again suggesting a possible bigger top is still very far, as
many retail shareholders have still not even heard of ADT.
Good luck to ADT shareholders. Please DYOR and as mentioned, I’m not suggesting sitting tight, or anything and might attempt some trading myself.
Cheers
(20min delay)
