Still harping incorrectly about this bentas, when I made it clear here several times before, that I bought BUD at 35c on the back of the so-called 'monster deal' but sold 2 weeks later at 32c when I sensed something wasn't right and charts showing it was turning around. If I had held onto it, I would have lost a further 72% or close to $10k! When it was around 25c I think, I was chief detractor on this forum cautioning why I sensed disconnect in their announcements , suggested a sell but no one wanted to hear it. As for BIQ, bentas keep talking about the big fall from IPO...I didn't lose as much on this as you represented, there was a 1:1 issue but I always felt that BIQ had better functionality and as a business, is actually doing better than BUD in the energy optimisation space and trading at just 10% of BUD market cap....but it has low liquidity. So my record is not as what bentas said ! I have been consistent in what I have said about BUD. This announcement validates what I have said before (you can put lipstick on a pig) - that the Ohm business wasn't getting any traction and promises have been undelivered. So to address this 'failure', you have to find a new business. While the new business is great compared to what they have now, what is it that you have to pay? A high acquisition cost of A$70m but with no assurance of great cashflow - cashflow is lifeline of business- otherwise more CR down the line. Can they deliver positive NPAT this year? You would expect so with that acquisition cost but to achieve that, they cannot possibly keep all their headcounts.
After its poor forecast, you should take their LIFX forecast with a grain of salt and let them prove themselves first.
Final thing- this becomes more a consumer type business with low net PBT margin (typically in consumer)- so why would you expect a tech type valuation going forwards?
And what is more important? Revenues or Profits? What pays dividends? EOL (Energy One) has an annual revenue of $10m and $1m profit with a market cap of just $24m. So can BUD's bloated market cap post 2nd CR sustain? In my judgement, no , unless LIFX can deliver $5-10m profit.
BUD Price at posting:
9.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
