Before April this year, when Charles Barclay compared Gubong to Emperor mine in Fiji, I believed Gubong only produced a very modest 400,000 ounces. An average 8000 ounces per annum over 50 years is actually less than modest - it's ridiculously small. Then Charles compared it to the 8 Moz Fijian behemoth that both he and Colin managed, and also mentioning that in pre industrialised Korea, managers would have never reported accurate production - then a light bulb went for me. Also, the 22,000 strong workforce, at one time, could have never been paid enough, if Gubong's actual production was so tiny.
I made an assumption that the mine and tailings pit were very small based on the official figures. If the mine was 10-20 times more productive than stated, we can reasonably assume any future production from tailings and even the mine itself, should be expectedly proportionately higher.
I know a lot of investors and people in general would prefer believing an official number over some random HC poster's hypothesis, however, I'm only relaying what our BMV guys think. It's very difficult to get more qualified opinions over those two blokes.
The 8 second clip of the mine main adit and especially the tailings was the clincher for me. If my eyes don't deceive me, Gubong is freaking massive. The hills and mountains make any other man made structures seem very small, however, not the tailings. It looks very sizeable in the clip. 10 MT is not out of the realms of possibility and may in fact be much more than this, IMO.
Many exploration companies would love to strike a shallow, open pitable mine 500x200 m with 30,40 or 50 meters at 1.5-2.0 g/t. This is by itself.
Having several hundred thousands of easy lowish grade ounces next to a big high grade underground operation is an incredible situation to have. With any high grade ore that the UG supplies to the mill, the lowish grade tailings can be blended in, boosting or even doubling gold production. If this prospect was in the US, Canada, Australia or even Mexico, a major miner would have already swooped in on a place like Gubong, ages ago.
I reckon SAU/BMV should drill the tailings facility as a priority, while the FS is being performed. Getting anything over 100K ounces would help, however, several hundred thousand ounces of Measured Reserves in combination with the UG reserves would be a real kicker.
To generate cash from both Gubong and Australia would help SAU acquire and develop totally new tenements and even mills in both countries. This should be a spectacular growth story with any luck.
SAU Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held