Sorry to hear that
@yellowfin sold I respected his opinion despite our differences.
Agree the jewels were sold and it's bad, he knows better the business and industry than I.
I don't believe in qualitative analysis generally of the sort you are talking about - it relates to the reason why analyst forecasts are generally useless. "Inasmuch as the future is known it is reflected in stock prices, therefore the future reflects what is not known"Any information widely followed and analysed by human brain is not a source of competitive advantage.
It pays to know it, it is important but you can't wait for a good outlook as there will be more buying competition.
You want to be the only person buying and think an an entirely alien way to your competition AND be correct.
That doesn't come naturally.
It's my normal place to be buying stocks with unanimous objections.
To answer your question if the company had one or two revenue halfs as bad as this one it's dead meat. That's a risk but you have to consider the likelihood of it happening.
I have this discussion a lot it's hard to be contrarian on these forums.
That comment is expressed to me in various guises in every stock I buy, the industry is a gonner. My answer is always the same - I don't know where revenue is going my base assumption is flat. Especially after a long decline when the laws of economics militate against the continuance of a trend.
Why do you think revenue will continue to decline when the company has forecast increase with the utilitisation of new vessels and reduced costs with the shipbuilding program rolling off?
Now it's got a reprieve on the debt it looks likely to survive as a shadow of its former self, with a little cashflow to pay interest costs.
There's no way of knowing when revenue will decline or fall but my best guess is that we are close. That's management guidance also and they have been pretty accurate.
Industry spending is at unsustainably low levels and over the long term it will go up. Oil companies have a bit more cash in the pocket than last year..
I think most likely the company will survive now but be worth less over the long haul, yes the advantage is gone.
Still haven't bought any and I guess that's the litmus test isn't it.
