My other post saying I'm out at 69 cents meant nothing unless...

My other post saying I'm out at 69 cents meant nothing unless you know where I bought them at, I recall a minor profit/loss.

OK, to remove all doubt then, I think this says - quite unambiguously - where you bought them (at least, that's what I think "long at 70c" means):

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ne...3063494/page-44?post_id=20849918#.WKZp72996Uk


"Talking of lies you once slammed ANG and then admitted you did it to get the price lower so to buy it cheaper. Nice, very honest and decent of you...not."


I like to think there's a bit of a difference between "slamming" a stock and calling it as you see it.

As a case in point, you might interpret the following commentary - posted a few days ago - as a case of "slamming the stock". Other's might just call it offering a frank and candid warning.

"There are very few companies I follow whose short-term earnings are as sensitive to exchange rate movements, as SDI's.

And the problem is that SDI has an A$ functional currency, yet 90% of SDI's Revenue are made up of exports (i.e., invoiced in non-A$ currencies).

Consequently, the strength in the A$ in recent months means that the stock is probably cum-downgrade for FY2017.

For what its worth, if this current A$ strength continues, then I suspect NPAT for the full-year will be around $6.3m, which would be down some 15% on the record FY2016 result.
(By halves, it would look something like: DH2016 = $2.2m, down 26% on pcpc, and JH2017 = 4.1m, down 10% on pcp).

So, similar to what happened in the years during the early resources boom, when the A$ started to rise, FY2017 is sure to be a lost year, in terms of growth in A$ terms.

But this masks the continued underlying growth in constant currency terms.

While I'm no good at making long-range forecasts (especially not when it comes to exchange rates), if in FY2018 the A$ stabilises at the current level, then a repeat of the masking of the the organic growth in the business will not recur.

In this case, assuming that SDI's earnings recover just half-way between FY2017's level, and FY2016's (before the A$ strengthened and before the pound collapsed due to Brexit)...
on that basis, the stock will be trading on a P/E of around 11.5 to 12.0x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of around 5.5x.
(On my FY2017 forecasts, the corresponding multiples are 13.0x and 6.1x, respectively.)

So, whether one looks at FY2018 numbers, or even at the currency-affected FY2017, the stock does not look fundamentally over-valued.

Unfortunately, that is unlikely to cause the share price to rally any time soon, as long as everyone knows that earnings expectations still need to be re-based downwards."


Of course, as a long-term investor who likes to be offered the opportunity to buy shares in companies at lower - rather than higher prices - I admittedly do stand to gain should my frank and candid assessment in this case come to pass, as it is currently doing.

But I'm able to easily ethically reconcile that supposed conflict of interests in my mind because I have absolutely zero delusions about my ability to influence share prices by posting an opinion on HotCopper.

For starters, not even I can prevent the A$ from going on a tear.