Eshmun I have said it before , I rate you as an investor who has...

Eshmun
I have said it before , I rate you as an investor who has brains , thus I don't question the robustness of your analysis or views . In fact with most of the macro stuff I agree. The difference is I view opportunity cost as an important part of the equation. You may indeed come out of the latest oil price downturn with more shares , but what will the price be and what will it need to be to achieve a great return. I have been investing on and off in CB stocks for about 15 years and in that time I have seen despite very robust oil prices with the exception of DLS due to Pel91 the rest have struggled to add meaningful reserves . This in the end if my real concern because in 12-18 months time , even if oil was higher , the value of the stock will be driven by its reserves and production profile. With oil in the low 40s , I can see how DLS or BPT with their small drilling program will replace reserves and what's worse the will produce 8-10% of their 2p reserves at very little margin. Bpt next year has a small amount of hedges at 45 and DLS has some at 60 and 50. The AUD is 72 so after capex and opex, the dollars for exploration won't be much