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20:18
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Originally posted by eshmun
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I knew you'd be back as we get close to your exit point. You lost a good opportunity at plus 80cents my friend. As I said earlier I'm not bothering trading SXY. I might buy more if it dips lower. I'd jokingly speculated that we could see DLS at $1.00 by the end of the year but if you want to be faithful to my posts on this subject I've been saying all along it would be longer, probably during 2016 (when the US shale oil hedging well and truly runs out of puff). The market valuations of many commodities including oil have been driven down by the heavily crowed trade in the US dollar. One would expect that if the US economy was doing well the price of commodities would rise, after all it is the biggest economy in the world and if Americans have coin in their pockets what better to spend it on than the cheapest Chinese goods you can find at Walmart. Not the case is it? In reality the rush to the US dollar is an ill conceived fear trade brought about by the consequences to world economies caused by the mad policies of loose money that have been thrust upon us by central banks. These policies have lead to over investment in capacity. Investment capital being misallocated on a long term basis. Risk not being priced properly. The biggest elephant in the room is US shale. The industry that has propped up the US dollar, the Feds legitimacy and the US economy based entirely on a credit. They are slow to let go of this bubble industry as they know letting go will cause trouble for their markets (and ours) and the gains they've had through increased employment (in certain oil states) and a moderate uplift in growth through the improved (but not net positive) terms of trade with China. China has been very accommodating with the US as it has continued peg its currency to the US dollar (apart from some minor downward adjustments in recent times). There is a big risk to the US dollar if China takes a less accommodating approach and next year the US dollar will reverse dramatically when the jig is finally up in the shale oil patch and jobs are not only lost at the bottom of the food chain of the industry but the axe also starts getting wielded around at the high paid jobs at the top. I'm happy waiting and I'll start re-accumulating the 30% of the holding I sold at 80plus cents very soon. As I've said before I can't see DLS going below about 56cents. Doubt it will make it below 60 cents this time so whether you buy more now or at 65,5cents today or a few cents lower makes no difference in the long run. OPEC will be back in charge soon. They are being given the hurry along by the Russians now. As I said before the Saudis are being shown the carrot and the stick by Russians. Dangerous time for US markets when the oil price is this low. Just need to look at how junk bond yields are behaving and those reports about negative credit default swap rates. Go on buy some. I know you want to.
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