2 notes of caution ============================ 1) Oil is only about 60% (though thankfully gas prices look like they are rising). Last year Range put out modelling showing the oil content drops off faster than gas. I assume this has been incorportated into the reserve calculations. Sandridge and others had similar revisions to their type curve.
2) NPV only went up 10% despite BOE going up 85%. Presumably due to more conservative pricing and modelling. Today 1 barrel of 1P reserves has a NPV of $15. Last year it was $26. Thats 40% discount !!
If similar conservatism is happening accros the board, little wonder some companies are getting into trouble when they rely on an increasing RBL to fund their drill programs. They may be negative equity and breaching thier RBL terms....
AOK Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
