LVT 2.27% 21.5¢ livetiles limited

1. One point of clarification : There are currently 576 million...

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  1. 27 Posts.
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    1. One point of clarification : There are currently 576 million shares in issue.
    If you are approaching a valuation based on EV then you want to use actual number of shares because new shares are issued for cash.
    I don't use EV as my primary valuation tool for stage 1 and 2 growth tech companies because cash is not a discretionary asset that can be returned to shareholders, it is more akin to a raw material that is going to be burnt in growing the business. Nevertheless it is a popular tool and the one used most often by sell-side brokers.
    FWIW, the EV (Enterprise Value) of LVT is currently around $214 million
    Market Cap 576 x .42 = $242 million
    Cash = $28 million
    EV = Market Cap - Cash = $214 million.

    2. ARR is $30.7m So EV/ARR is currently 7x. That would be considered low for a growth SAAS company.

    3. Whether you put it on 15x or Whale's suggested valuation of 25X, the stock would be higher. ( $ .75 - $1.28) based on an EV/Recurring Revenue valuation model

    4. I have suggested that the reason the stock is so cheap is because the market is waiting to see if there is an inflection point in cash burn.

    5. I have been conservative in my cash burn assumptions and we assumed a higher rate of cash burn than others on this thread. I still think the stock is potentially worth a lot more than the current share price but in our valuation model we have built in assumptions about a future capital raise. If I have been unduly cynical and harsh about the company's opportunities to control cost then we would have to revise our model which would use a lower number of shares and thus a higher share price.

    There is a reason that many investors look at EV/Revenue for SAAS growth stocks. Many (maybe most) small cap growth SAAS companies end up getting acquired by larger tech companies . The valuation metric used in acquisition is EV/Revenues. The acquiring company is looking at the growing recurring revenue stream and will strip out much of the marketing cost as they fold the products and business into their own sales channels. The typical EBIT margin for SAAS is 70%. So if they pay 25x revenues, they are paying 35x EBIT for a growing EBIT stream. If they pay 15x revenues, they are paying 20x EBIT. Its a valid valuation tool.....The two tweaks we have made is (a) cash burn assumption and (b) looking forward to guestimate future growth. We end up somewhere between 85 cents and $1.25 but this very much depends on seeing an inflection in cash burn
 
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