"Livetiles has all the right things going for it, but whether...

"Livetiles has all the right things going for it, but whether they succeed or not will depend on the execution. The transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2 is critical. Management’s financial discipline and focus is key here."

Bingo. Jay nails it in two lines.

They are brilliantly positioned from a product stand point. They have an experienced, competent and ambitious management team. The growth has been extraordinary :growing Annualized Recurring Revenues from $6 million to $30+ million in 6 quarters. The catalyst will be the critical transition from Stage 1 Growth with increasing cash burn , to Stage 2 Growth with decreasing cash burn. That requires additional skills of financial discipline and focus on operational efficiency.

If they are successful, as a stage 2 company, they should command a valuation of somewhere between 10 and 15x recurring revenues. (Workday reached a valuation of 35x revenues when it reached stage 2.....and you would have made a ton of money if you paid 35X revenues because it continued to grow fast. ) . Pick your own ARR forecast to establish your own base case valuation and optimistic valuation.. Watch out for the inflection of cash burn.