"Livetiles has all the right things going for it, but whether they succeed or not will depend on the execution. The transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2 is critical. Management’s financial discipline and focus is key here."
Bingo. Jay nails it in two lines.
They are brilliantly positioned from a product stand point. They have an experienced, competent and ambitious management team. The growth has been extraordinary :growing Annualized Recurring Revenues from $6 million to $30+ million in 6 quarters. The catalyst will be the critical transition from Stage 1 Growth with increasing cash burn , to Stage 2 Growth with decreasing cash burn. That requires additional skills of financial discipline and focus on operational efficiency.
If they are successful, as a stage 2 company, they should command a valuation of somewhere between 10 and 15x recurring revenues. (Workday reached a valuation of 35x revenues when it reached stage 2.....and you would have made a ton of money if you paid 35X revenues because it continued to grow fast. ) . Pick your own ARR forecast to establish your own base case valuation and optimistic valuation.. Watch out for the inflection of cash burn.
LVT Price at posting:
42.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
