Ann: 1H19 Market Release, page-6

The good thing is that they are forecasting 4.5% growth in normalised NPBT for H2 over pcp (after H1 -1.7%). I'm not sure what their basis is for that improvement. Also the div is being mantained.

Some very subtle items I noticed on the more negative side. I suspect the results are worse than the market expected.

I think the outlook language changed from "very positive" when the guidance downgrade occurred, to a weaker "confident the business is well placed". That was a very bad quarter as expected for the life/annuities segment.

They mention the operating environment on page 8 of the pres. That is not a promising sounding operating environment.

Life Sales: On page 15 of the pres, and using page 15 of the FY pres - GIR and Index plus has had a terrible half year. Very roughly H1 17 $0.6b H2 17 $0.35b, H1 18 $1b, h2 18 $0.6b, h1 19 $0.7b. If there is seasonality then the trend is reversing here. I hope I haven't included japan anywhere in these numbers (as the FY didn't include Japan). I was expecting that this would be a growth area. It may be an impact from the Dec q, or could some of the big customers be going a bit DIY - has anybody seen any DIY product at any of the industry super funds?

Domestic life / annuity sales held up well by the looks. But this is the segment I suspect will be hit by the Royal commission changes due to an impact on financial planner customer enquiries levels and transaction numbers. If Japan was 15% of life sales in FY 18, and included in Annuity sales, then we had domestic sales of h1 18 $1.85b, H2 18 1.55b, H1 19 $1.95b roughly. So we might have seen some benefit from the BT Panorama deal and/or some organic growth.

The maturity rate was 25% in FY 18, and expected to fall to 23% in FY 19, but we now have an outlook at 24% for the full year on page 17 of the presentation, which suggests a miss to that forecast.

Based on rolling 4q over 4q, total life sales have fallen 10%. That is the worst metric since the March q of 2016 when we had -6.5%. I suspect this is significantly due to Japan, GIR and INdex plus.

I would have liked a comparative January sales figure or update, but none was given.

In Funds Management (excl life), we have seen the third quarter of net outflows (excluding market and other effects). Not sure what is going on there, but the latest q wasn't a surprise.