@Value_Hunter Yes, there are so many counterbalancing factors at...

@Value_Hunter

Yes, there are so many counterbalancing factors at play, that trying to guess how things will pan out in the next year or two seems like a fools errand.

To add complexity to the mix, HVN's directly owned (not franchised) retail operations overseas, as at FY17, accounted for over 30% of gross-profits (all revenues, less direct sales costs, before operating costs) and nearly 20% of group EBITDA.

I'm not normally too excited about the OS ops, as I see them as a drain on capital (though not to a damaging extent in the case of HVN) and focus. That said, the reality is that FY17 showed good growth in OS revenues, but more importantly, the strongest firming of margins that I have yet observed. This is a trend that looks like continuing into FY18, and perhaps even strengthening. This no seems to be providing a strong out-of-cycle input (as in, contrary to domestic conditions).

So whilst this will unlikely be sufficient to counter a serious domestic decline, it is likely to very substantially soften the blow.