Ann: 10 mths to 30-4-2017 agg sales by hn, dm & jm franchisees, page-292

Thanks for posting VH. Very interesting. Not sure how old that post is, but you would have to say, I would think, that it's no longer much of a secret to anyone with half a brain, that our property is outrageously expensive by global standards, on several measures. Also, I would think it is no longer just fringe dwellers, misfits and self appointed geniuses (like Tepper and Bronte) that are proclaiming the obvious. Why even the greatest economic conformists in the land, the Reserve Bank, have been raising the alarm for quite a while now.

So sure, we should all be concerned. But forecasts about how it plays out... well, I wonder how certain anyone can be. If one of Tepper's pre-conditions for a "bust" is that no one sees the danger, well that's one condition I'm not sure exists anymore. He also refers to falling wages (in real terms), and interest rates that have bottomed. Well, on the wages front, it's an open question as to how things play out from here. On the interest rates front, I'm not sure anyone yet knows whether we are experiencing cyclical lows or whether there is something structural going on.

He also refers to the well known, and oft trotted line, that we haven't had a recession in a long time, with the consequential loss of prudence and so on (paraphrasing very roughly). That's probably true. But on the other hand, the global recession (whether we had it or not) most definitely had an influence on the Australian consumer. Just compare retail sales several years prior to the GFC, with those post the GFC.

But all interesting nonetheless. Tepper's background growing up in Madrid was an interesting aside.

Thanks again.