thanks for that. Yeah I remember Sinkorswim. It'd be interesting to know the relationship between him and MM. HC obviously worked out something was suss.
So it'll be either great company level news or another Vanadium price spike that will get his out of it's 1.4-2.8c range that it traded from Aug 2016 to the start of last year.
As Scarpa and our China bears have pointed out, a huge breakout again of V demand due to the increased rebar standards is probably not going to occur. This could be due to macro reasons to do with the Chinese economy and trade tensions etc. However it is more likely to be due to China's ability to control the price and substitute in more expensive domestically produced V, niobium and manganese etc. Although, it would seem that China is no longer an exporter of V as it once was.See https://www.vanadiumprice.com/ex-coo-of-klondex-mines-joins-exciting-nevada-vanadium-start-up/.
Even though it isn't considered to be the immediate driver of vanadium demand, we are all hoping that the demand for V occurs for VFRBs as a solution to storing base load renewable power on a large scale. Hopefully it isn't as far away as it is made out to be. The world's largest battery in China, to be built by Ronke in Dalian province is due for completion next year. If this comes online next year it will be a game changer. So to me it is not so much Chinese demand for V that is going to get a high quality project like AVL going again, it will be the leadership and direction it sets for the future of energy generation and supply,
However, back in the rest of the World, there are several other competing technologies that could also be used for grid storage. I haven't looked into it much yet, but Shell's acquisition of Sonnen is a clue to where at least one of the world's big energy produces thinks things are heading and one such example of alternative technologies. Sonnen is developing tech to create a virtual battery of grids connected with PV/battery powered homes. Each home with a system is a cell in the virtual battery that supplies the whole grid.
So as AVL progresses to DFS and looks to lock in an equity partner or other funding arrangement to get us to mine, the VFRB development that is happening between now and next year could drive demand of our product. To the dismayed folks here who are sitting on large holdings that they bought in 2018 prior to the slide in October, I would say it is probably worth waiting it out for another 9 - 21 months to see what unfolds if you can afford to do so that is. I didn't go too hard at this while the price was rising, though I too started my accumulation after the breakout occurred. I look at the paper loss I am currently sitting on as a significant portion of my annual salary but probably only in the vicinity of what you would put towards a big overseas holiday. Happy to stay at home and sit it out
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