And so it begins...., page-30

A few smaller mines are coming onstream as even by your own example in the article. The vanadium production profile is not large btw (the mine in the article has a production capacity less than 20% of what AVL intends entering the market at btw), so would expect the mine itself to be a higher cost mine by the looks of it. These types of mines are the first to shut down as new larger supply comes onstream btw IMO.

Suspect the Chinese strategy here, like in iron ore and alumina and even spodumene and vanadium, noting China does produce these as well but is not an exporter of those commodities (i.e. it uses them for internal consumption), is if the price gets to high internationally on commodity markets they will internally produce their own (even at a loss or small profit to put a check on import price growth (and indicate to the international market what China are willing to pay import wise for a commodity or they will just produce their own). Has always been a Chinese strategy IMO since the early 2000s to control any rampant price growth on any mineral etc.

The Chinese strategy in play is where China becomes the largest producer or buyer of a certain commodity - like cobalt chemicals - it basically uses its weight to get price reductions as there are no other producers outside China who could buy any surplus, say cobalt produced in the world, if China flexes its muscle (hence why in the short term China can influence price there but the longer term strategy of the market is to see more developments in chemical processing (whether lithium, cobalt or vanadium outside China,and this is the catch 22 scenario as China is more of a risk taker than European/American companies so until that mold is broken China can always flex its might in commodity markets where it is the largest buyer or has a large resource of the purchased commodity etc etc). And it can do that because a lot of industries in China are government owned. Refer this example:
https://www.mining-technology.com/features/inside-chinas-move-monopolise-cobalt/

In investment terms, in terms of minerals we always look at seaborne trade where Australia will be a large producer like say in iron ore, coal, lithium and IMO in future probably vanadium etc etc, but never take into account China's own internal resources as the long term price check where international prices get out of hand and one where in terms of a given mineral China is the main customer demand wise. IMO that is. That is why I feel vanadium prices will be around US$10 per pound to $15 per pound long term, because China won't put up with rampant price growth for vanadium, i.e. like its approach to other commodities where it has large internal resources even if they are expensive to mine, and therefore feasibility for AVL needs to be assessed against that price. Obviously China's influence in the vanadium space will be reduced if more downstream uses of vanadium are outside China.

Hence, the price area is where I do agree with VA on likely long term price for vanadium.

Furthermore, vanadium resources need to also be assessed against mass recovery etc etc as that feeds into cost structures and long term viability. On that front, AVL is a leader but obviously the economics need to stack up for it to be mined, which I think it will. This post explains that - Post #: 37312181

My personal take is the market may not believe that AVL can get to market by 2021. Where I agree with you is that it will be tight, and actually the key threat is future vanadium demand becomes served by expansions in Largo and Busheveld (Vametco), been the existing projects, and then new supply to meet demand coming from development in key potential vanadium projects been developed such as Bushveld's Mokopane resources, Atlantic reopening up Windimurra and TNO getting over the line. Entering market ASAP is the key for AVL IMO, but I also think the vanadium demand ouylook might be under-estimated by teh market as well. Refer: Post #: 36982141 and this was the article I was referring to https://smallcaps.com.au/china-new-vanadium-steel-rebar-standards/

With the new rebar standards I do expect there to be room for AVL's development but both need to get their act together if want to enter the market in 2021, rather than later than this date, but from a personal perspective I think AVL and TMT should actually be working together (share infrastructure where possible particularly relating to the gas pipeline) to improve NPV for both and get to market earlier. AVL and TMT are currently working as if IMO the competition for the next vanadium play is between them but that is not the case and getting to market ASAP is the priority here IMO.

My criticism with VA in the past is IMO he has been distracted by batteries and other things, when the key thing is to get to market by serving the steel market first and then worrying about batteries later on but as long as your process flow sheet is right you can deal with that issue later on - Post #: 37313859.

A long winded post to say what I have said before. Anyway, I think I'll take a break from HC for a while like other posters here until the DFS/MET test results come out. Timeframe to market is the key here.

All IMO