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An emerging potash province of significance, page-11

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sevo

3,933 Posts.

46

19/09/14

13:10

Post #: 14000311
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Originally posted by soulsurfer222 ↑

G'day sevo.

That's a good question.

My short answer is that IMO … next year.

The longer one is that I believe that in the current market, this emerging potash province requires several things to line up / happen before we see a 'potash boom' in this area taking place.

1) Global commodity cycles; potash in particular I believe is beginning a longer term uptrend based on global supply and demand

2) The emergence of the Australian Potash export market to meet this demand

3) Resolution of Native Title issues, in particular Land Access Agreements With regard to

Global Commodity cycles we are obviously seeing the end of the Iron Ore boom which is why we are seeing the diversification from Gina and Twiggy. I also believe BHPB showed its hand regarding its view on potash with its failed $39 million bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan which was knocked back by the Canadian government on sovereign resource grounds….. (keep in mind BHPB already has infrastructure in place in this area of WA – north and west of the Great Sandy Desert).

As the world's population grows exponentially (estimated 9.6 Billion by 2050) and the amount of arable land in the world shrinks, the demand for potash has to rise IMO.

While Australia currently imports 100% of its potash requirements, there is also an even bigger market on our doorstep with Asia.

This is where I believe for investors to realise sustained upside with their potash investments, Australia's infant potash industry first needs to go past the pilot production stage to full scale annual production with off-take agreements in place. In most other resource sectors where a junior gets a JORC resource in place the company then gets revalued against current market conditions for that resource. In the case of this emerging potash province there is no real commercial production with long term off-take agreements in place….yet…. I see this market being on the brink of taking off once these things are in place as the wider market will be better able to ascribe a value to this new emerging (Australian) export industry.

Of course none of these things can happen without Native Title issues having been sorted first. Again in my research on the companies in this area I believe all the above factors are coming into alignment where we will see this all important beginning of the Australian potash exports next year. For this reason I am following this market closely with a focus on companies in this particular area of Australia, both listed and currently unlisted.

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RWD no longer has NT problems (if you ignore the Fairfax Media beat up)

RUM Price at posting: 8.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

RWD Price at posting: 61.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 7.0¢		Change -0.010(12.5%)		Mkt cap ! $9.114M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.5¢	7.5¢	7.0¢	$33.60K	474.8K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	216107	7.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.8¢	100000	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	189708	0.100
1	10000	0.080
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.105	24000	1
0.110	8500	2
0.115	10000	1
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0.130	96000	3

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An emerging potash province of significance, page-11

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