oslo, it looks to be a completely different ball game this time around. Since NAB's offer of around $6.40 fell through, it was spoken of that AMP might offer around $6.20 because that's all it could afford, or because AXA might be desperate given NAB's offer fell through. Now though, it's become interesting. AXA has had broker buy recommendations, the massive China deal (including mining investment with Minmetals), and a rising share price. Check out market caps for AXA and AMP (from my trading platform):
In fact, it would be a reverse takeover. I know it's been mooted that AXA's French parent might kick in a bit to help things along, but it would still require a massive capital raising from AMP to get things across the line. It looks to me like AXA would have a better chance at taking over AMP!
Maybe KKR, the private equity firm, could take over AXA: they missed out on taking over Coles, Healthscope, and now look to be rejected by Perpetual. Private equity can come up with loads of money.
As for a scrip proposal from AMP... they have an NTA of 90cps, whereas AXA has $1.01 per share. Even a $6.40-odd per share cash offer- less than a 20% premium- looks a bit paltry now. AXA might be better off going it alone, but rising on rumour on this latest news. How long could it be until AXA reaches that SP by itself with its cutrent performance? Our graph post-NAB T/O attempt tells its own story.
AXA Price at posting:
$5.61 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
